Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market settles using Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which serves as the official observation point for the city's aviation and meteorological records. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC, capturing the full calendar day's temperature record.

Atlanta's May temperatures typically peak between 82–92°F, with historical averages clustering around 87°F for the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to appear or treating this as a placeholder market pending fuller liquidity. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket have shown similar low initial probabilities before settlement windows approach; Kalshi's weather contracts, by contrast, often display tighter spreads and higher participation earlier in their lifecycle, partly due to their decimal odds format versus Polymarket's implied probability display. Betfair and Smarkets typically see weather markets activate closer to event dates, reflecting their user bases' preference for near-term certainty over long-dated forecasts.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecasts beginning in early May 2026, particularly any heat advisories or anomalous patterns affecting the southeastern United States. Late-May weather in Atlanta is influenced by Gulf moisture and subtropical high-pressure systems; any significant deviation from seasonal norms would shift range expectations. The market's reliance on a single airport station means localised conditions at Hartsfield-Jackson—including urban heat effects and runway orientation—will determine settlement, not broader Atlanta metro temperatures.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.