Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 22?

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Market context

Atlanta’s airport temperature on 22 May will settle on the highest reading logged at Hartsfield-Jackson before the market closes, using Wunderground’s final daily history for KATL. The crowd is currently pricing the YES side at 0%, so the market is effectively expecting the day’s peak to land outside the specified temperature band. That is consistent with the broader late-May climatology in Atlanta: normals sit in the low 80s Fahrenheit, but daily highs can still swing several degrees either side depending on cloud cover, shower timing and whether the warmest spell arrives before the midday cut-off.

Comparable pricing on weather binaries is usually driven more by the forecast ridge than by the monthly average. Recent Atlanta weather markets have shown crowd confidence concentrating in the lower bands when National Weather Service guidance pointed to highs in the low-to-mid 80s, while broader seasonal references from AccuWeather and WeatherSpark put May highs roughly between 76°F and 86°F, with rare excursions beyond 90°F. On Polymarket, the market is shown as an implied probability; on Kalshi, the same event is typically quoted in price terms and can be easier to compare mechanically, while Betfair and Smarkets display decimal odds and build in different commission structures. KYC access also differs: Polymarket is more crypto-native, whereas Kalshi and the major betting exchanges generally require fuller identity verification and are jurisdiction-limited.

For a same-day settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, the main catalysts are the overnight model updates, any pre-dawn convective rain or cloud cover, and the timing of the morning warming curve at Atlanta. Once the sun is up, the key question is whether the airport reaches its daily maximum before the noon UTC cut-off, rather than whether the afternoon later turns hotter. The National Weather Service forecast published ahead of the day had Atlanta near 83°F to 85°F under mostly cloudy skies with scattered afternoon showers, which would normally cap the upside on early-morning readings. Any last-minute shift in cloud base, rain onset or wind direction at KATL is more relevant here than the citywide temperature headline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 22? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.