Highest temperature in Ankara on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ankara’s temperature at Esenboğa can still move quickly late in May, but the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, so the market is really about the morning build-up rather than the full day’s warmth. Seasonal context points to a mild-to-warm late-spring regime: long-run May highs are around 22°C, with forecast ranges in the low to mid-20s Celsius on calmer days and much cooler outcomes when cloud, rain or a northerly breeze suppresses heating. That makes the upper end of the distribution matter more than the average, especially because the contract resolves on the single highest reading recorded at the airport station, not the city’s daily mean.

On comparable weather books, the current 0% YES looks more like a pricing artefact than a statement of certainty, because low-resolution local weather markets often need an actual temperature print before liquidity firms up. On Polymarket, that usually shows up directly as a yes/no implied probability; on Kalshi, the same event is expressed in cents on a 0–100 scale, which can look firmer even when the economics are similar. Betfair and Smarkets add another layer through commission and exchange-style matching, so the headline price can diverge from the true executable level, particularly once spreads widen or the market is thin. KYC reach also differs: Polymarket access is narrower by jurisdiction than larger exchange venues, which can affect participation and price discovery.

For today’s catalyst, the key variables are whether early cloud clears, whether any shower activity lingers into the morning, and whether the airport site gets enough direct sun for a late spike before noon UTC. The Wunderground station history page is the settlement source, so traders should watch the live forecast and observations for LTAC rather than Ankara city-centre conditions. In practice, a temperature market like this can reprice sharply off a single updated forecast cycle or a visible break in cloud cover, even if the rest of the day later turns warmer.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Ankara on May 22? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.