Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to cincinnati open: katerina siniakova vs jessica bouzas maneiro. This market refers to the tennis match between Katerina Siniakova and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page compares Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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