Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf ourense: rina saigo vs celia cervino ruiz. This market refers to the tennis match between Rina Saigo and Celia Cervino Ruiz in the ITF Women Ourense, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rina Saig…
Methodology
This page compares ITF Ourense: Rina Saigo vs Celia Cervino Ruiz specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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