Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui | 99% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set 2 Winner | 96% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to china open, qualification: botic van de zandschulp vs jie cui. This market refers to the tennis match between Botic van de Zandschulp and Jie Cui in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page compares China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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