Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 40% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 Winner | 39% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 Winner | 38% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik | 33% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 17% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 69% YES probability for Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik. This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Jakub Mensik in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thi…
Methodology
We read Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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