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Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik

Which venue prices "Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 8.5 69% Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 21.5 63% Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 9.5 61% Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 22.5 57% Volume: $56K Liquidity: $233K Closes: 26 Aug 2026
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Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
69% 31% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
69% 31% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 8.569%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 21.563%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 9.561%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 22.557%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 9.551%
Completed Match50%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 8.550%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 10.550%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 23.549%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Total Sets: O/U 2.543%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 10.542%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.540%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 Winner39%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 Winner38%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik33%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.517%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 69% YES probability for Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik. This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Jakub Mensik in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thi…

Methodology

We read Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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