Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open, qualification: mackenzie mcdonald vs trevor svajda. This market refers to the tennis match between Mackenzie McDonald and Trevor Svajda in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will …
Methodology
We read Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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