Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron. This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Marcos Giron in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hu…
Methodology
This page compares National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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