Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton. This market refers to the tennis match between Ugo Humbert and Ben Shelton in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ugo Humbert…
Methodology
This page compares Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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