Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Kyrian Jacquet are scheduled to meet in Roland Garros qualifying, with the market already pricing a Jacquet advance at 100% yes. That is in line with the published match result on tennis sites, which show Jacquet winning the qualifying final in straight sets, 7-6, 6-3, meaning any remaining uncertainty is more about settlement mechanics than on-court direction. On a platform basis, Polymarket and Kalshi typically express the same outcome as a share price or cent price rather than a book-style decimal line, while Betfair and Smarkets frame it through exchange odds and commission; the practical difference here is that a near-certain outcome can look slightly different once fees, margin and conversion are stripped out.

For comparison, the best reading of a 100% crowd price is that the market believes the result is effectively already decided, not that it can never move. Jacquet arrived with the stronger clay record and had already navigated qualifying without dropping much, while Gill came through with a heavier set count, which is the kind of pre-match form edge that exchange and prediction markets usually compress quickly when the event is close to starting. Where these venues differ is in access and settlement: Kalshi is US-regulated and KYC-gated, Polymarket is crypto-native and more globally accessible, and Betfair/Smarkets depend on local betting account rules and available liquidity, so the same match can trade at different effective prices after friction.

The main catalysts are procedural rather than sporting: confirmation that the qualifying match was completed, whether either player advanced, and whether there is any late alteration to the schedule or a walkover. TennisMajors reported the fixture and later the straight-sets result, while Sofascore and Flashscore list the match in the Roland Garros qualifying draw, so traders should watch for official draw updates and any withdrawal notices that could force the market into the no-contest or 50-50 settlement path if the match had not been played as expected.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.