Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: alejandro davidovich fokina vs fabian marozsan. This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Fabian Marozsan in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'A…
Methodology
We read Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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