Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic

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Market context

Raphael Collignon and Aleksandar Vukic are scheduled to contest a first-round match at Roland Garros on 24 May 2026. The 100% implied probability displayed here reflects either extremely confident market consensus or sparse liquidity on this particular pairing—a common feature across smaller ATP matchups where volume concentrates on seeded players or later rounds. Kalshi's binary structure and Polymarket's AMM-based pricing can diverge sharply on low-volume tennis markets; Kalshi's order-book model may show tighter spreads if institutional traders are active, whilst Polymarket's constant-product formula can drift toward extreme probabilities with minimal capital. Betfair's traditional exchange format typically attracts higher volumes on Grand Slam first rounds, making it worth cross-checking decimal odds (near 1.01 for Collignon at 100% probability) against these alternatives before committing.

Collignon, a Belgian player ranked outside the top 100, has limited recent ATP main-draw history; Vukic, an Australian qualifier or lower-ranked entrant, similarly lacks the profile to generate significant market interest. The absence of recent head-to-head data or notable recent form announcements means traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations and any last-minute withdrawals or injury news through ATP or FFT channels in the week before 24 May. Weather delays at Roland Garros are routine; the settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing a seven-day buffer, but unfinished matches trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail-risk exposure that Smarkets and Betfair traders may price differently depending on their historical clay-court completion rates.

Methodology

This page compares Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.