Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Game Spread +/-5.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to japan open tennis championships: carlos alcaraz vs jaume munar. This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jaume Munar in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page compares Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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