Which company has the best Math AI model end of July?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on which company owns the top-ranked math model in the Chatbot Arena leaderboard when checked on 31 July 2026, with Anthropic currently holding the lead through its claude-opus-4-6-thinking model. As of April 2026, this model ranked #1 in Math with an Elo score of 1504, and by July 2026 it had climbed to 1518 Elo, cementing Anthropic’s position at the frontier of mathematical reasoning [1][3].

Historically, math-specific Elo scores have risen fastest among all categories, gaining +172 points since tracking began and averaging 10.4 points per month overall, suggesting the gap between leaders can narrow quickly [3]. Comparable cases show that while Claude Fable 5 leads a composite quality index in July 2026, the math leaderboard remains dominated by Opus variants, though OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro are closing the gap in head-to-head play [2][4]. Traders should watch for Anthropic’s next model release schedule, OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 update timeline, and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro math benchmarks, as any shift in these could alter the arena rank before settlement [4][5].

On Polymarket, the 49% YES implied probability translates to roughly 1.02 decimal odds, whereas Kalshi and Betfair would quote this as 1.02 or 51/49 respectively, with Kalshi requiring full KYC and applying a 1% fee while Polymarket charges no fee but has limited KYC reach. Smarkets and Betfair offer deeper liquidity on tech markets but impose higher fees, making the current probability more attractive on Polymarket for unverified traders seeking decimal precision without identity checks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Which company has the best Math AI model end of July? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.