Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Azurá Stevens: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 178.5 | 52% |
| Azurá Stevens: Assists O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Sabrina Ionescu: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 179.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Azurá Stevens: Points O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| O/U 180.5 | 47% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| Jonquel Jones: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Sabrina Ionescu: Points O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Jonquel Jones: Assists O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Spread -8.5 | 45% |
| Breanna Stewart: Points O/U 21.5 | 44% |
| Sabrina Ionescu: Assists O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Natasha Cloud: Points O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Sydney Taylor: Points O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| Breanna Stewart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 41% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| Natasha Cloud: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -10.5 | 38% |
| Azurá Stevens: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| Breanna Stewart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Azurá Stevens: Points O/U 12.5 | 29% |
| Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty | 28% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 65% YES probability for Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 22 at 7:00PM ET: If the Chicago Sky win, the market will resolve to "Chicago Sky". If the New York Liberty win, the market will resolve to "New York Liber…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $119K.
Methodology
This page compares Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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