Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
57% | 43% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
57% | 43% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| Skylar Diggins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Gabriela Jaquez: Points O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Azurá Stevens: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 180.5 | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| O/U 181.5 | 46% |
| Skylar Diggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| O/U 182.5 | 44% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| Gabriela Jaquez: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Skylar Diggins: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces | 38% |
| Azurá Stevens: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| Sydney Taylor: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Azurá Stevens: Points O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| Azurá Stevens: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 29% |
| Spread -11.5 | 28% |
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 6% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 6% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 57% probability to chicago sky vs. las vegas aces. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 3 at 10:00PM ET: If the Chicago Sky win, the market will resolve to "Chicago Sky". If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces".…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $215K.
Methodology
This page compares Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Trade Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces on Polymarket Alternative
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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