Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 64% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map 1 Winner | 47% |
| Map 2 Winner | 46% |
| Match Winner | 44% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 41% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 40% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 40% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 36% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 36% |
| Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) | 28% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 27% |
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 26% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 64% YES probability for Valorant: FUT Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket final match between FUT Esports and Karmine Corp in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will re…
Methodology
We read Valorant: FUT Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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