Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 100% |
| Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. | 74% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 74% |
| Decision or Draw | 67% |
| Fight won by decision? | 64% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 55% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 50% |
| Ends before Round 5? | 25% |
| Barcelos in Round 4 | 19% |
| Barcelos in Round 5 | 19% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 4 | 17% |
| Barcelos to win by KO/TKO? | 14% |
| Rosas Jr. to win by KO/TKO? | 13% |
| Fight won by submission? | 13% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 5 | 12% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 5% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 5% |
| Ends before Round 4? | 5% |
| Barcelos in Round 1 | 5% |
| Barcelos in Round 2 | 5% |
| Barcelos in Round 3 | 5% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 1 | 5% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 2 | 5% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 3 | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to ufc fight night: raoni barcelos vs. raul rosas jr. (bantamweight, main card). This market will resolve to "Raoni Barcelos" if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $691K.
Methodology
This page compares UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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