Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 71% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 67% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 55% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 53% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 46% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 38% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 19% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 11% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 9% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, england vs. dr congo - player props stands at 91% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read England vs. DR Congo - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade England vs. DR Congo - Player Props on Polymarket Alternative
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