Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 90% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| O/U 34.5 | 88% |
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| O/U 37.5 | 83% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| O/U 40.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 41.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| O/U 49.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 49% |
| O/U 50.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 51.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 44% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| O/U 52.5 | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 56.5 | 32% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 58.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| O/U 59.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -19.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 67.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Safety? | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Patriots vs. Bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $795K.
Methodology
This page compares Patriots vs. Bills specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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