Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 80% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | 69% |
| O/U 227.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| O/U 230.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| O/U 232.5 | 58% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| O/U 233.5 | 56% |
| O/U 235.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 236.5 | 49% |
| Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| O/U 237.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 45% |
| Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| O/U 240.5 | 41% |
| Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| O/U 243.5 | 35% |
| Spread -12.5 | 29% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 249.5 | 24% |
| Overtime? | 24% |
| Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 80% YES probability for Raptors vs. Wizards. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors". If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game is post…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $108K.
Methodology
This page compares Raptors vs. Wizards specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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