Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 76% |
| O/U 216.5 | 70% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 14.5 | 69% |
| O/U 219.5 | 64% |
| O/U 222.5 | 57% |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | 56% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| O/U 224.5 | 53% |
| O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dyson Daniels: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dyson Daniels: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dyson Daniels: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Johnson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Johnson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Johnson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Grayson Allen: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| O/U 226.5 | 48% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| CJ McCollum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| CJ McCollum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| O/U 227.5 | 46% |
| CJ McCollum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| CJ McCollum: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| O/U 229.5 | 42% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| O/U 230.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Luguentz Dort: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| O/U 232.5 | 37% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| CJ McCollum: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 29.5 | 33% |
| CJ McCollum: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 32% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| O/U 235.5 | 31% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 30% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 39.5 | 29% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Sion James: Points O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| CJ McCollum: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 18.5 | 27% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Sion James: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Grayson Allen: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| O/U 238.5 | 26% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Grayson Allen: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Aaron Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Luguentz Dort: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 241.5 | 21% |
| CJ McCollum: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| CJ McCollum: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| CJ McCollum: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 20% |
| Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Luguentz Dort: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Jalen Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Spread -11.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, hawks vs. hornets stands at 76% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $107K.
Methodology
We read Hawks vs. Hornets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
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