Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami CF will travel to face Philadelphia Union in an MLS regular-season match on 24 May 2026. The 90% implied probability on Polymarket reflects strong confidence in a specific outcome, though the settlement criteria—whether this covers a draw, extra time, or 90-minute result only—will determine how traders on Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets interpret equivalent odds. Polymarket's decimal-odds display (approximately 1.11 for the 90% case) differs visually from Betfair's fractional format, which can obscure true probability comparison across platforms. Kalshi's strict US-resident KYC requirements exclude many international traders who might otherwise arbitrage pricing discrepancies between venues.

Historical context shows that MLS playoff and late-season matches involving Miami have attracted volatile trading in the final 48 hours before kickoff. In comparable 2024–25 fixtures, injury announcements and team rotation decisions shifted implied probabilities by 8–15 percentage points within 72 hours of match day. Smarkets' lower liquidity on MLS events versus Polymarket means wider bid-ask spreads, though its commission structure (4% on winnings rather than Polymarket's flat fee) favours smaller stakes.

Traders should monitor team news releases and official MLS communications through 23 May. Miami's fixture congestion in late May and Philadelphia's defensive personnel status will likely drive the next material probability shift. Betfair's in-play trading opens 90 minutes before kickoff, offering exit opportunities unavailable on Kalshi's pre-match-only settlement model.

Methodology

This page compares Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.