Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are scheduled to play in the AL East on 22 May, with the market sitting at a 44% YES price on Tampa Bay. That implies the Yankees remain the marginally favoured side, which fits the season-long numbers in the ESPN listing: New York has more runs, hits and home runs so far, although Tampa Bay is carrying the higher batting average and on-base percentage. Head-to-head history is fairly balanced over a large sample, with the Yankees leading 152-144 in 299 meetings since 2003, so a sub-50% Rays price is more consistent with current team form than with long-run rivalry data.

Comparable pricing on different books can look different because the same game may be quoted as decimal odds on Betfair or Smarkets, while Polymarket and Kalshi show implied probability directly and still differ on fees, spread and who can access the market. On a 44% Rays price, a simple no-vig conversion is only a rough guide: exchange commission, transaction costs and KYC limits can make a move from 44% to 46% on one venue and 44% to 42% on another without any change in the baseball outlook. That matters here because a one-run game between division rivals is the sort of matchup where small pricing differences are common.

The main catalysts are the official line-ups, starting pitchers and any late injury or weather news before first pitch. ESPN’s pre-game pages already show both clubs with similar overall offensive production, but the live edge can swing quickly if one side rests a regular or changes its starter. The market also stays open if the game is postponed and only resolves on a completed result, so traders should watch for schedule changes or a make-up date rather than assuming any rain delay settles the contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.