New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Mets travel to Miami on 24 May for a regular-season matchup against the Marlins, with first pitch at 1:40 PM ET. The 42% implied probability for a Mets victory reflects moderate confidence in the visiting side, though the settlement window extends to 31 May to accommodate any postponements. Across major prediction platforms, this market reveals structural differences: Polymarket displays the probability directly, whilst Kalshi and Betfair convert to decimal odds (approximately 1.72 for Mets at this probability), and Smarkets similarly uses decimal format. Fee structures diverge meaningfully—Polymarket charges 2% on winnings, Kalshi typically 2.5% on resolved positions, and Betfair's commission scales with liquidity. KYC requirements also vary; Kalshi enforces stricter US verification, Polymarket operates with lighter onboarding in certain jurisdictions, and Betfair's international reach remains broader.

Historical context suggests the Mets' road record and recent form against the Marlins should anchor expectations. The Marlins have won 8 of their last 12 home games as of mid-May 2026, whilst the Mets' away splits have trended slightly below .500 this season. Pitching matchups will prove decisive; the Mets' starter assignment and Miami's bullpen depth typically drive single-game outcomes more than season-long records.

Traders should monitor roster updates through 24 May, particularly injury reports on key position players or starting pitchers. Weather conditions at loanDepot Park—humidity and wind direction—can favour either side. Recent team announcements regarding lineup changes or managerial strategy shifts, typically released 24–48 hours before game time, will refine the probability across all platforms before settlement.

Methodology

This page compares New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.