Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 77% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| NRFI | 50% |
| Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox | 48% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
Market consensus: 77% chance of houston astros vs. chicago white sox. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for July 25 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros w…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $450K.
Methodology
This page compares Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox on Polymarket Alternative
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