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MLB: Home Runs Leader

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Kyle Schwarber 48% Yordan Alvarez 21% Junior Caminero 15% Shea Langeliers 5% Volume: $714K Liquidity: $32K Closes: 28 Sept 2026
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MLB: Home Runs Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 48% 52% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 48% 52% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Kyle Schwarber48%
Yordan Alvarez21%
Junior Caminero15%
Shea Langeliers5%
Nick Kurtz2%
Munetaka Murakami2%
Elly De La Cruz2%
Aaron Judge1%
Shohei Ohtani1%
Matt Olson1%
James Wood1%
Ben Rice1%
Cal Raleigh0%
Eugenio Suarez0%
Juan Soto0%
Pete Alonso0%
Rafael Devers0%
George Springer0%
Giancarlo Stanton0%
Mike Trout0%
Manny Machado0%
Jordan Walker0%
Brandon Lowe0%
Sal Stewart0%
CJ Abrams0%
Player A0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Player AO0%
Player AP0%
Player AQ0%
Player AR0%
Player AS0%
Player AT0%
Player AU0%
Player AV0%
Player AW0%
Player AX0%
Player AY0%
Player AZ0%
Player BA0%
Player BB0%
Player BC0%
Player BD0%
Player BE0%
Player BF0%
Player BG0%
Player BH0%
Player BI0%
Player BJ0%
Player BK0%
Player BL0%
Player BM0%
Player BN0%
Player BO0%
Player BP0%
Player BQ0%
Player BR0%
Player BS0%
Player BT0%
Player BU0%
Player BV0%
Player BW0%
Player BX0%
Other0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 48% probability to mlb: home runs leader. This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the …

Methodology

We read MLB: Home Runs Leader from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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