Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs face the San Francisco Giants on 13 June at 10:05 PM ET in a regular-season matchup. The 52% implied probability favouring the Cubs reflects a near-even contest, with settlement occurring eight days after the scheduled game date to accommodate potential postponements. Across major prediction platforms, this market reveals structural differences: Polymarket displays decimal odds (approximately 1.92 for Cubs moneyline), whilst Kalshi and Betfair present fractional or decimal formats with varying fee structures—Kalshi typically charges 2% on winnings, Betfair takes commission on net profit, and Smarkets operates a 2% maker/taker model. KYC requirements differ substantially, with Kalshi enforcing stricter US-resident verification than Polymarket's international accessibility, affecting liquidity depth and order-book tightness on this specific fixture.

Historical Cubs-Giants matchups since 2020 show marginal home-field advantage; the Cubs' Wrigley Field record against San Francisco runs approximately 52–48 over recent seasons, aligning with current market pricing. The Giants' 2024 roster composition and injury status—particularly rotation depth and bullpen availability—remain critical variables. Traders should monitor MLB injury reports through 12 June, as late-notice pitcher changes or roster moves can shift win probability by 3–5 percentage points. Recent form matters: check each team's last ten games and run differential heading into this fixture, as momentum often diverges from season-long records.

Methodology

This page compares Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.