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LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B

Cross-platform snapshot for "LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Game 2 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 51% Any Player Penta Kill 51% Volume: $2.3M Liquidity: $1.4M Closes: 15 Jul 2026
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LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 2 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Match Winner34%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?26%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?1%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)0%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5)0%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

The LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Team Secret and Karmine Corp in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 15 at 9:40AM ET. This market will reso…

Methodology

We read LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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