Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 71% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Game Handicap: DNS (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | 47% |
| Game 4 Winner | 46% |
| Game 2 Winner | 44% |
| Game 3 Winner | 44% |
| Game 1 Winner | 43% |
| Match Winner | 35% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 34% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) | 23% |
| Game Handicap: DNS (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) | 23% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs DN SOOPers (+2.5) | 12% |
Market context
Market consensus: 71% chance of lol: t1 vs dn soopers (bo5) - kespa cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Semifinal match between T1 and DN SOOPers in the KeSPA Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page compares LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs on Polymarket Alternative
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