Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya. This market refers to the tennis match between Daria Kasatkina and Anna Kalinskaya in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 28, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dari…
Methodology
This page compares Mubadala Citi DC Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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