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WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash

Cross-platform snapshot for "WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Tony Dunst 100% Kristen Foxen 98% Brian Hastings 98% Robert Eichele 97% Volume: $107K Liquidity: $38K
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WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Tony Dunst100%
Kristen Foxen98%
Brian Hastings98%
Robert Eichele97%
Kathy Liebert97%
Stephen Song97%
Michael Mizrachi96%
Jeremy Ausmus96%
Chris Moneymaker96%
Alex Foxen96%
Greg Raymer96%
Stephen Chidwick51%
Martin Zamani51%
Ryuta Nakai51%
Chris Hunichen51%
Erik Seidel49%
Greg Merson49%
Gerard Piqué49%
Joe McKeehen49%
Daniel Negreanu5%
Martin Kabrhel3%
Phil Hellmuth3%
Freddy Deeb3%
Scott Seiver2%
Robert Varkonyi1%
Jason Koon0%
Joe Cada0%
Daniel Weinman0%
Damian Salas0%
Viktor Blom0%
Sean O'Malley0%

Market context

WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes the 2026 World Series of Poker Main Event, Event #82, held July 2–13, 2026, with the final table played August 3–5, 2026 in a paid finishin…

Methodology

This page compares WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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