Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Olivia Miles: Points O/U 18.5 | 52% |
| O/U 175.5 | 52% |
| Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| O/U 176.5 | 49% |
| Kayla McBride: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Kayla McBride: Points O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Olivia Miles: Assists O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Napheesa Collier: Points O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Allisha Gray: Assists O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Olivia Miles: Assists O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| O/U 178.5 | 43% |
| Napheesa Collier: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| O/U 179.5 | 41% |
| Napheesa Collier: Assists O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Kayla McBride: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Olivia Miles: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Napheesa Collier: Points O/U 18.5 | 27% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 56% YES probability for Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 30 at 3:00PM ET: If the Minnesota Lynx win, the market will resolve to "Minnesota Lynx". If the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to "Atlanta D…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $101K.
Methodology
We read Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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