Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics | 61% |
| 1H O/U 82.5 | 60% |
| O/U 164.5 | 59% |
| 1H Moneyline | 59% |
| O/U 165.5 | 55% |
| O/U 166.5 | 54% |
| Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 82.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Sonia Citron: Points O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jordin Canada: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Sonia Citron: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordin Canada: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Moneyline | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
Market context
Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics — current market-implied probability: 61%. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for September 30 at 7:00PM ET: If the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to "Atlanta Dream". If the Washington Mystics win, the market will resolve to "Was…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $154K.
Methodology
This page compares Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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