Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 78% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 52% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Winner | 49% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 49% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 49% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 49% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 47% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Winner | 42% |
| Map 2 Winner | 41% |
| Map 3 Winner | 40% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 39% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 35% |
| Match Winner | 33% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 31% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 24% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 23% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 21% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: team vitality vs 100 thieves (bo5) - vct champions playoffs stands at 78% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Lower Bracket Final match between Team Vitality and 100 Thieves in the VCT Champions Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 3:00 A…
Methodology
We read Valorant: Team Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO5) - VCT Champions Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Valorant: Team Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO5) - VCT C… on Polymarket Alternative
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