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Valorant: Nova Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha

Which venue prices "Valorant: Nova Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) 100% Match Winner 83% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 72% Volume: $155K Liquidity: $429K Closes: 17 Jul 2026
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Valorant: Nova Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5)100%
Match Winner83%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.572%
Map 2 Winner56%
Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)56%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5)54%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-3.5) vs JD Gaming (+3.5)50%
O/U 2.5 Games45%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.51%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.51%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.51%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.51%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Valorant: Nova Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha. This market refers to the Valorant match between Nova Esports and JD Gaming in the VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 17 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nova Espor…

Methodology

This page compares Valorant: Nova Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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