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UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry 76% Fight to Go the Distance? 62% Fight won by submission? 55% O/U 0.5 Rounds 52% Volume: $154K Liquidity: $166K Closes: 16 Aug 2026
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UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
76% 24% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
76% 24% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry76%
Fight to Go the Distance?62%
Fight won by submission?55%
O/U 0.5 Rounds52%
O/U 1.5 Rounds50%
O/U 2.5 Rounds50%
O/U 3.5 Rounds50%
O/U 4.5 Rounds48%
Makhachev to win by KO/TKO?44%
Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO?44%
Fight won by KO/TKO?42%

Market context

UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) — current market-implied probability: 76%. This market will resolve to "Islam Makhachev" if Islam Makhachev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry at 76% for "UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)".

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry 76% Other 24%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $154K.

Methodology

This page compares UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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Related Topics

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