Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol (-1.5) | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Maccabi Tel Aviv’s 5-0 first-leg win has left Sheriff Tiraspol needing an extreme turnaround in the second leg, which is why a **0% YES** price on a “more markets” contract can read as a function of structure as much as footballing odds. ESPN and Sky Sports both recorded the first leg as a 5-0 Maccabi win, and Sports Mole described the tie as effectively requiring a miracle for Sheriff to progress.[3][12][8]
For comparison, bookmaker-style pricing on the match itself was already heavily tilted towards Maccabi, with Yahoo Sports listing Maccabi at **-297** on the moneyline and **-1.5** on the Asian handicap, while the draw was **+406** and Sheriff **+694**.[14] On Polymarket, the contract is expressed as an implied probability, while Kalshi and Betfair tend to be read through contract or decimal prices after fees, so a platform with narrower access or higher friction for some users can trade differently even on the same underlying fixture. That matters here because “more markets” is a basket-style question: if the market resolves only on the presence of additional bettable lines, traders will watch whether the exchange posts any new props before settlement, not just the match scoreline.
The main catalysts are administrative rather than sporting: the confirmed line-up of side markets, any late changes to the venue or kick-off time, and whether the platform lists additional derivative markets before the settlement window closes. Yahoo’s match listing still pointed to a noon ET kick-off at Batumi Arena, but the market itself settles later on 30 July, so any late schedule correction, cancellation, or market expansion would be the key event to watch.[14][8]
Methodology
This page compares MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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