Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 0.5 | 65% |
| O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score | 37% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5) | 30% |
| O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5) | 8% |
| O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5) | 1% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Levski Sofia host CS Universitatea Craiova in UEFA Champions League qualifying, with kickoff listed for 6:30 pm at Georgi Asparuhov Stadium. The market’s 30% crowd-implied YES price suggests traders are treating “more markets” as a relatively low-probability expansion event rather than a base-case outcome, which is consistent with how ancillary club-market questions often trade on narrower information than the match itself.[1][2]
For platform comparison, the same event can screen differently across venues: Polymarket-style markets show a direct implied probability, while Betfair and Smarkets typically surface decimal odds that need to be converted back into probability, and their commissions/fees can change the effective price paid or received. On a fixture like this, that matters because a 30% YES on one venue may map to a visibly different headline price elsewhere once exchange margin, maker-taker fees, and KYC access limits are applied; that is especially relevant for users outside the broader retail remit of some books, where eligibility and settlement mechanics can differ even when the underlying football event is identical.[1][2]
The main catalysts are the pre-match team sheets, confirmation of competition stage, and any schedule or venue updates before the 6:30 pm local start, because qualifying ties can move quickly on late injuries, travel issues, or administrative changes. Traders should also watch whether the market’s “more markets” definition is tied strictly to additional listed selections on this fixture or to broader platform coverage, since settlement depends on the exact wording rather than the match result itself.[1][2]
Methodology
We read PFK Levski Sofia vs. Universitatea Craiova CS - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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