Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Viking FK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Viking FK O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Viking FK O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Viking FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Viking FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Viking FK (-1.5) | 99% |
| Viking FK (-2.5) | 92% |
| IK Start O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| IK Start O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| IK Start 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| IK Start 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Viking FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Viking FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| IK Start O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score | 20% |
| O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| IK Start (-1.5) | 0% |
| IK Start (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| IK Start 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| IK Start 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
IK Start host Viking FK in the Eliteserien, and the broader head-to-head record points to Viking as the stronger side: across recent meetings, Viking have won more often, with several high-scoring results and only a limited number of Start wins.[1][3][4] That matters for a “More Markets” contract because ancillary outcomes often track the same match script as the main fixture, so a 0% crowd-implied YES suggests the market is pricing this extra slice of the match as either unavailable, extremely unlikely, or already effectively settled against the contract’s condition.
For platform comparison, Polymarket users usually read this through crowd-implied probability, while Kalshi and Smarkets quote prices differently, and Betfair typically exposes decimal odds with a commission-based model rather than a pure probability view. On this type of football market, differences in liquidity, taker fees, and KYC availability can move the displayed edge even when the underlying event is the same: Betfair and Smarkets are generally more exchange-like, while Kalshi’s reach depends on jurisdiction and account verification, so the same match can look cheaper or richer depending on where you can actually trade.
The main catalysts are team-news and the exact settlement wording for “More Markets”, because these contracts can hinge on whether the platform adds, suspends, or resolves a secondary line tied to the fixture. Viking and Start have already met in 2026, including a 6-3 league game in May, which shows how quickly the price can re-rate if line-ups, injury reports, or scheduling changes alter the expectation of another goal-heavy or event-rich match.[3][5] Following official club announcements and the competition schedule is the key check before the settlement window closes, since a late change in kick-off or market definition can matter more than the historic head-to-head alone.[5][12]
Methodology
This page compares IK Start vs. Viking FK - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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