Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 57% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 46% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 40% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 37% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 30% |
| Game 2 Winner | 28% |
| Game 1 Winner | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Match Winner | 19% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 19% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 19% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 16% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 16% |
Market context
Market consensus: 65% chance of lol: team vitality vs g2 esports (bo3) - lec regular season. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between Team Vitality and G2 Esports in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 25 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tea…
Methodology
We read LoL: Team Vitality vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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