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LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Match Winner 94% Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) 85% Game 1 Winner 82% Game 2 Winner 82% Volume: $208K Liquidity: $405K Closes: 1 Jul 2026
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LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 94% 6% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 94% 6% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner94%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)85%
Game 1 Winner82%
Game 2 Winner82%
Game 3 Winner82%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?76%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon70%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Game 4 Winner65%
First Blood in Game 1?63%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?53%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
First Blood in Game 4?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon45%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon45%
O/U 3.5 Games43%
Odd/Even Total Kills42%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?39%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?38%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?38%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
O/U 4.5 Games13%
Any Player Penta Kill8%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 94% probability to lol: t1 vs team liquid (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between T1 and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for July 1 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 …

Methodology

We read LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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