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LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

O/U 3.5 Games 72% Match Winner 66% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 65% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 65% Volume: $98K Liquidity: $298K Closes: 8 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 72% 28% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 72% 28% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 3.5 Games72%
Match Winner66%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Game 1 Winner60%
Game 2 Winner59%
Game 3 Winner59%
Game 4 Winner57%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?54%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?54%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?54%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 4?49%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?44%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon43%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon43%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?39%
O/U 4.5 Games34%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)23%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)22%
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)7%

Market context

Market consensus: 72% chance of lol: lyon vs team secret whales (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between LYON and Team Secret Whales in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 8 at 4:00…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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