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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Cross-platform snapshot for "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Match Winner 74% First Blood in Game 1? 68% Game 2 Winner 67% Game 1 Winner 66% Volume: $170K Liquidity: $285K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
First Blood in Game 1?68%
Game 2 Winner67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
O/U 3.5 Games66%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon59%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills55%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Game 4 Winner51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?49%
First Blood in Game 4?48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?40%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor36%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors36%
Any Player Quadra Kill35%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)31%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%

Market context

LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 74%. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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