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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Cross-platform snapshot for "LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Match Winner 74% Game 1 Winner 67% Game 2 Winner 67% First Blood in Game 1? 67% Volume: $91K Liquidity: $869K Closes: 31 Aug 2026
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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
Game 1 Winner67%
Game 2 Winner67%
First Blood in Game 1?67%
Any Player Penta Kill65%
Any Player Quadra Kill64%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon63%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon63%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?61%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon56%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)46%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?45%
O/U 2.5 Games43%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?42%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors26%
Any Player Penta Kill17%
Any Player Penta Kill14%

Market context

The LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season prediction market currently prices this outcome at 74% YES. This market refers to the LoL match between Cloud9 and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Clou…

Methodology

We read LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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