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LoL: Cloud9 vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Cross-platform snapshot for "LoL: Cloud9 vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Game 1 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Match Winner 80% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? 53% Volume: $548K Liquidity: $1.8M Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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LoL: Cloud9 vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Match Winner80%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?53%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?53%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?50%
Game 2 Winner0%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)0%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of lol: cloud9 vs disguised (bo3) - lcs regular season. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between Cloud9 and Disguised in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 8 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if …

Methodology

We read LoL: Cloud9 vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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