Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union 3 - 1 Club Necaxa | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 - 0 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 - 1 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1 - 0 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 - 2 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1 - 1 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 2 - 0 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 - 3 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1 - 2 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 2 - 1 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 3 - 0 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1 - 3 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 2 - 2 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 2 - 3 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 3 - 2 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 3 - 3 Club Necaxa | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
Philadelphia Union met Club Necaxa in Leagues Cup group-stage play at Subaru Park, and the match finished 3-1 after regulation, which is the scoreline that matters for an exact-score market because extra time and penalties are excluded. Philadelphia also arrived with stronger recent home scoring form, while Necaxa’s away results in the run-up were less consistent, a pattern that generally pushes exact-score interest towards the more common one-goal and two-goal winning scores rather than a nil-nil or low-event draw.[1][5][8][13]
For comparison-platform context, Polymarket-style exact-score markets are usually read in *implied probability* terms, while Kalshi more often presents a contract price that traders mentally convert into probability; Betfair and Smarkets are easier to compare on *decimal-odds* style pricing, but the effective price still depends on commission and liquidity. On a market like this, a 0% YES print on the listed score implies the platform crowd thinks the exact listed outcome is no longer tradable or has already been eliminated by the result, whereas a separate “Any Other Score” contract would be the residual bucket if the score had not matched a listed line.[1][13]
The main catalyst for traders is the official match feed: line-up announcements, confirmed kick-off, and any abandonment or rescheduling update, because settlement follows the final score at full time only. In practice, the biggest platform divergence is operational rather than predictive: KYC access and jurisdiction vary across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets, and fee treatment also differs, so the same football score can trade at slightly different effective prices even when the headline probability looks similar.[1][5][13]
Methodology
This page compares Philadelphia Union vs. Club Necaxa - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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