Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| CF América O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Team to Advance | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score | 61% |
| O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| CF América 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| CF América O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF América 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF América 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half (-1.5) | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half (-2.5) | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half (-2.5) | 46% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| CF América 1st Half (-2.5) | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 30% |
| CF América (-1.5) | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 23% |
| CF América O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 23% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half (-1.5) | 23% |
| CF América 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| CF América 2nd Half (-1.5) | 17% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| CF Monterrey (-1.5) | 13% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| CF América (-2.5) | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| CF América 1st Half (-1.5) | 6% |
| CF América 2nd Half (-2.5) | 5% |
| CF Monterrey (-2.5) | 4% |
Market context
The CF América vs. CF Monterrey - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 95% YES. More markets for the Leagues Cup game, scheduled for September 2 at 11:30 PM ET.
Methodology
We read CF América vs. CF Monterrey - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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