Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Real Betis Balompié O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Real Betis Balompié 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 57% |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Real Betis Balompié 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Real Betis Balompié O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Real Betis Balompié 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 31% |
| Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) | 24% |
| Real Betis Balompié O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| Real Betis Balompié 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) | 10% |
| Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) | 10% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5) | 3% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, real betis balompié vs. real sociedad de fútbol - more markets stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for August 21 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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